If you look online for tips on flying with kids, you will inevitably find the nearly-universal advice to buy a ticket for children of any age. Even the FAA tells you in no uncertain terms that holding your child in your lap is not safe in the case of an accident. So why is it still an option?
In the FAA statement 10 years ago, they explained that this is a public policy issue. Their analysis concluded that if parents had to buy an extra plane ticket, more families would choose to drive rather than fly which would result in additional fatalities. While many people decry the FAA's decision for putting additional children at risk, I applaud that they work with the reality of how people make decisions (and used data to make that choice).
Beyond the lap-child issue, I have wondered if the drive to the airport actually carries a higher risk than the flight itself. According to the data here, in 2010 the risk was 1.1 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Flight data is somewhat harder to extract. The number cited in the link covers private airplanes separately (reasonable) but also terrorism and suicide (which we would probably want to include). That link suggests a fatality rate of 0.07 per billion passenger miles, which works out to 158 miles flown has the same risk as 1 mile driven. If we instead look at the National Travel Safety Board data we see an even more encouraging picture since many years do not have any accidents with fatalities among airliners (the scheduled commercial flights most of us are taking).
All in all, I think most people do not worry about safety when deciding if they will fly or drive to their destination. It is well known that our brains are not well suited for assessing modern risks. And so it is important for public policy to carefully include how people respond to policies in their decision making.
In the FAA statement 10 years ago, they explained that this is a public policy issue. Their analysis concluded that if parents had to buy an extra plane ticket, more families would choose to drive rather than fly which would result in additional fatalities. While many people decry the FAA's decision for putting additional children at risk, I applaud that they work with the reality of how people make decisions (and used data to make that choice).
Beyond the lap-child issue, I have wondered if the drive to the airport actually carries a higher risk than the flight itself. According to the data here, in 2010 the risk was 1.1 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Flight data is somewhat harder to extract. The number cited in the link covers private airplanes separately (reasonable) but also terrorism and suicide (which we would probably want to include). That link suggests a fatality rate of 0.07 per billion passenger miles, which works out to 158 miles flown has the same risk as 1 mile driven. If we instead look at the National Travel Safety Board data we see an even more encouraging picture since many years do not have any accidents with fatalities among airliners (the scheduled commercial flights most of us are taking).
All in all, I think most people do not worry about safety when deciding if they will fly or drive to their destination. It is well known that our brains are not well suited for assessing modern risks. And so it is important for public policy to carefully include how people respond to policies in their decision making.
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